Q10. Critically analyze India's evolving diplomatic, economic and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) highlighting their increasing significance in regional and global geopolitics.

Approach

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Introduction

India's evolving diplomatic, economic, and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs)—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—highlight their growing significance in regional and global geopolitics. India has identified CARs as key partners, particularly due to their rich energy reserves and strategic location.

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Diplomatic Engagements with Central Asia:

• India’s diplomatic outreach has grown through initiatives such as the India-Central Asia Dialogue (since 2019) and high-level visits. In 2022, Prime Minister Modi participated in the first India-Central Asia Summit, indicating India's commitment to deepening ties with the region.
• India is also engaging with CARs through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where all CARs are members. India uses this platform to strengthen security cooperation and enhance diplomatic influence in the region.

Economic and Energy Cooperation:

• Energy Security: Kazakhstan supplies over 40% of India's uranium needs, crucial for India’s nuclear energy program. The TAPI pipeline, despite facing delays, holds promise for diversifying India’s energy imports from Turkmenistan’s vast natural gas reserves.

• Trade and Connectivity: Trade between India and CARs was $2 billion in 2021, a modest figure with significant growth potential. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) aims to reduce dependency on traditional sea routes and improve trade connectivity, potentially cutting transport costs by 30%.

Strategic and Security Ties:

• Defense Cooperation: India has established strong defense partnerships with countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. India operates a military base in Farkhor, Tajikistan, focusing on counter-terrorism and regional security, especially in light of the Afghan crisis.
• Counterterrorism: CARs are critical to India’s counterterrorism strategy. Cooperation in defense, including joint military exercises and counter-terrorism operations, enhances India’s influence in maintaining regional stability.

Challenges to India’s Engagement:

• China’s Dominance: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to significant investments in infrastructure across CARs, making it a dominant economic player. Kazakhstan-China trade reached over $25 billion in 2022, overshadowing India’s economic presence.
• Russian Influence: CARs remain historically aligned with Russia through military and security frameworks like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), limiting India’s influence in security matters.

Conclusion

India’s relationship with the CARs presents both opportunities for energy security and challenges from China and Russia’s growing influence. Strengthening economic ties through INSTC and increasing strategic cooperation in defense and security will be key to deepening India's engagement in this geopolitically significant region.

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